Compare proposals with the same product duty, supplier boundaries and acceptance basis. The amount below is a transparent planning example, not a market price range, supplier estimate or DPS quotation.
The defined scope assumes applicable freight, procurement charges and taxes are included in the owner’s estimate. Add missing civil, land / shell, OEM, environmental, validation and permitting costs explicitly. Site and field conditions, duty, production access and quoted supplier scope determine actual price. Financing is excluded.
Worked Operating Case
Hypothetical standalone first-factory case: $3,000,000 defined process / equipment / engineering / installation scope + $1,500,000 separate site / fit-out + 15% contingency $675,000 + $200,000 separate owner launch cost + $350,000 working capital = $5,725,000 initial cash. At 250 days × 7 scheduled productive hours/day × 1,600 good kg/h × 55% realization, potential output is 1,540,000 kg, capped by 1,400,000 kg demand. Net $4.20/kg price less $2.60/kg incremental variable cost gives $2,240,000 gross contribution; deduct $900,000 annual fixed operation for $1,340,000 steady net cash. First-year gross realization is 45%, giving $108,000 first-year net cash. All historic material, labor, energy, cleaning and maintenance savings are zero. This standalone result is not the incremental value of leaving a co-packer.
Calculated from these assumptions: steady annual net benefit $1,340,000; year-one net cash $108,000; cash payback Beyond 5 years; five-year NPV at 10% is −$1,765,346. Change the assumptions below to test a different case.